The World Bank on Tuesday projected India's economy to grow at 8.3 per cent in 2021 and 7.5 per cent in 2022, even as its recovery is being hampered by an unprecedented second wave of the COVID-19, the largest outbreak in the world since the beginning of the deadly pandemic. The Washington-based global lender, in its latest issue of Global Economic Prospects released here, noted that in India, an enormous second COVID-19 wave is undermining the sharper-than-expected rebound in activity seen during the second half of Fiscal Year 2020/21, especially in services.
'Infusion of fresh capital, handsome growth in deposits and focus on recovery should bring Yes Bank back on the growth path in the next financial year,' observes Tamal Bandyopodhyay.
Wall Street-correlated stock markets are facing the risk of correction, as Christopher Wood, the global head of equity strategy at Jefferies, conveys to investors in his latest edition of GREED & fear. Rising crude oil prices, which are nearing $100 a barrel (Brent), pose a threat to the global central bank's battle against inflation and have led to a re-evaluation of its exposure to Indian stocks. "The potential for more US Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hikes, combined with the risk that monetary tightening finally bites as regards the economy, remains a risk for Wall Street-correlated world stock markets. "There is also the oil factor. This is why GREED & fear continues to believe the pain trade is down. "Areas in Asia, such as Indian midcaps, which have already done very well, are at obvious risk of some profit-taking," writes Wood.
The key risk factors would be anti-incumbency, small vote share swings causing large impact on outcomes and the 2004 example.
After disappointing guidances in the first quarter (Apr-Jun) of the 2023-24 financial year (Q1FY24) and valuation downgrades, the Indian IT sector could see some positive repricing as the bad news for IT maybe easing in Q2FY24. A key negative factor was weaker demand from the US financial sector and from North America in general. The latest GDP (gross domestic product) estimates and sector-specific news suggest that the demand situation may not be quite so bad with a gradual recovery in tech spending in Q2.
A key reason for the rise in crypto currencies in 2023 is the possibility of the world's first Bitcoin ETF over the next few months.
Public sector banks may have to bear a burden of Rs 1,800-2,000 crore arising due to a recent Supreme Court judgement on the waiver of compound interest on all loan accounts which opted for moratorium during March-August 2020, sources said. The judgement covers loans above Rs 2 crore as loans below this got blanket interest on interest waiver in November last year. Compound interest support scheme for loan moratorium cost the government Rs 5,500 crore during 2020-21 and the scheme covered all borrowers including the prompt one who did not avail moratorium.
Retail investors now own a bigger slice of smallcap companies than at the start of 2023-24 (FY24), underscoring their growing conviction about investing in this red-hot space. Data from Capitaline shows mutual funds' (MFs') average holding in the National Stock Exchange Nifty Smallcap 250 rising to 9.26 per cent from 8.67 per cent during the first six months of FY24, with the number of companies with over 20 per cent MF holdings increasing from 24 to 28. In comparison, MF holdings in Nifty50 companies have gone up only marginally, from 9.67 per cent to 9.75 per cent.
This election will be remembered for being the first election where the Election Commission failed to take action on gross violations involving the ruling party that repeatedly used religion, communal slurs, lies and undocumented allegations, observes Ramesh Menon.
In nearly 100 seats, the BJP stands almost no chance of winning. In 200 seats, it is a direct fight between the BJP and the Congress where the BJP has an upper hand. In 243 seats, the BJP is pitted against regional parties and it is not going to be easy. That is why 400 seats may end up as a pipe dream, states Ramesh Menon, author of Modi Demystified: The Making of a Prime Minister.
IndusInd Bank was the top loser among Sensex stocks, dropping by 4.38 per cent. SBI declined 2.41 per cent, HDFC Bank 1.77 per cent and Axis Bank fell by 1.5 per cent. Among others, auto, FMCG and power stocks also closed in the red.
Citing the sharp rise in food prices, economists at a foreign bank have forecast a steeply higher retail inflation print for July, pegging it at 6.7 per cent, up 190 basis points from the previous month. Deutsche Bank India economists led by chief economist Kaushik Das, in a report on Monday ahead of the monthly inflation print and the Reserve Bank's monetary policy review, said that the July consumer price-based inflation index (CPI) is likely to print at 6.7 per cent on-year as against 4.8 per cent in June. The Reserve Bank is widely believed to leave the key interest rates unchanged for the fourth time in its upcoming bi-monthly monetary policy decision on August 10.
'Banks are being encouraged to lend instead of parking their resources with the RBI and earn risk-free interest income,' points out Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
Central Bank of India's 21.5 per cent assets are either bad or have been restructured.
Dwaipayan Bose simplifies the whys and hows of revisiting your financial goals
If Tesla comes in, India's position as a manufacturing hub will rise many notches, as it will become only the second country, after China, to have both Apple as well as Tesla.
JP Morgan's decision last week to include Indian government bonds in its Government Bond Index-Emerging Markets (GBI-EM) index and the index suite from June 2024 may be a sort of blessing for India, as the move is estimated to result in an inflow of $25 billion of foreign portfolio investments into the country. The development comes at a time when the spread between the benchmark 10-year government of India bond and the 10-year US government bond has declined to its lowest level in more than 17 years. Low yield spreads make Indian bonds less attractive to foreign portfolio investors (FPIs).
HDFC Bank becomes first Indian lender to develop mobile banking app for Apple's latest offering in India.
How much will the banks' bad assets grow in March? It could be anywhere between Rs 1.2 trillion and Rs 2 trillion, observes Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
For the startup ecosystem in India, the scorecard so far has been a mixed bag, observes Akhil Gupta.
Will a caste census make tens of millions desert Mr Modi?, asks Shekhar Gupta.
Here's a map that visualises the official numbers for percentage of households availing banking facilities as published by the Planning Commission of India in June 2014.
From the Sensex firms, Bajaj Finance, HDFC, HDFC Bank, Bajaj Finserv, Asian Paint, State Bank of India, Tata Consultancy Services, Bharti Airtel, Reliance Industries and Tata Steel were the biggest gainers. HDFC climbed 2.59 per cent after the housing finance major on Thursday reported a 20 per cent growth in standalone net profit to Rs 4,425 crore for the quarter ending March 2023 on the back of higher interest income. IndusInd Bank, Nestle, Power Grid, ITC, Tata Motors and Mahindra & Mahindra were the major laggards.
Higher for longer' may be the narrative in the developed markets, but interest rates might not stay high for very long in India, with a section of the market expecting rate cuts to begin this year. The six-member Monetary Policy Committee of Reserve Bank of India (RBI) decided to keep interest rates unchanged at 6.5 per cent in the April review - after hiking the policy repo rate in six previous meetings. RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das emphasised that the pause was only for the April policy and that the central bank was ready to act if the situation demanded.
The country's largest software exporter TCS on Wednesday reported a 16.83 per cent jump in its June quarter consolidated net profit to Rs 11,074 crore. The Tata Group company had reported a net profit of Rs 9,478 crore in the year-ago period and Rs 11,392 crore in the preceding quarter. Its revenue from operations increased 12.55 per cent on a year-on-year basis to Rs 59,381 crore and was marginally up from the preceding March quarter's Rs 59,162 crore.
Since March 31, 2022, the PSBs' market cap has risen 43.7 per cent, from Rs. 7.29 trillion to Rs. 10.47 trillion. It's time for the government, the majority owner of public sector banks, to reap the benefit of the rally in bank stocks, recommends Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
Domestic equity investors' wealth eroded by more than Rs 4.43 lakh crore on Monday as fears of a financial contagion triggered by one of the biggest bank failures in the US roiled market sentiments. After a strong opening, Indian stocks went into a tailspin with the benchmark 30-share BSE Sensex tumbling nearly 900 points to close at 58,237.85 points -- sliding for the third straight trading session. The NSE Nifty too declined 258.60 points to end at 17,154.30 points.
'He only promotes those leaders who will never show any resistance to him in future.'
Cruelty by the husband (or his relatives) accounted for about 40 per cent of these cases. Delhi reported the highest number of cases of crimes against women (12,552) followed by Mumbai with over 5,000 cases.
Buoyed by an increase in public investment and incentives to boost manufacturing, India's economy is expected to grow by 8.3 per cent in the fiscal year 2021-22, less than the previous projection early this year before the country was hit by the second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, the World Bank has said in its latest report. World Bank chief economist for the South Asia Region Hans Timmer told PTI here that when one looks at the high frequency data, they see that as a result of the second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, the recovery paused, and some indicate that the recovery actually declined briefly. "We project for this fiscal year 8.3 per cent (growth rate for Indian economy) that is less than we projected early in the year before the health crisis caused by the second wave. "Given the sharp contraction of the economy last year, it might not look like a lot, but in my view, that is actually very positive news, given the violent second wave and the severity of the health crisis," he said on Thursday.
Indian IT services sector's revenue growth will slow down to 3 per cent in the current fiscal from 9.2 per cent in the previous financial year, a domestic ratings company said on Tuesday. Icra Ratings said the profitability will also take a beating in this financial year and the operating profit margin will narrow by up to 1 percentage point to 20-21 per cent. The topline growth will come down to 3-5 per cent in FY24 from the 9.2 per cent posted in FY23, the agency said, attributing the slowdown to softening demand.
Even as the World Bank has revised India's growth figures by 0.4 percentage points as compared to its January forecast, India remains the fastest growing major economy in the world, the World Bank officials said.
Lending rates have started rising after more than two years. Five banks have increased their benchmark lending rate -- or the base rate -- even as the country's largest lender, State Bank of India, decided to maintain status quo. All corporate and retail loan rates linked to the base rate will now go up.
Will Vijay will go the most successful MGR/Jayalalithaa way, or that of Vijayakanth, Seeman or Kamalahaasan, or will he end up as another Rajinikanth who cries wolf at the last minute and quits the scene even before it all had really begun, asks N Sathiya Moorthy.
India's biggest non-bank finance company, Bajaj Finance (BAF), is set to raise capital after a gap of four years. On October 5, the board of directors will meet to approve the fund raise by way of preferential issue and/or qualified institutional placement (QIP) subject to regulatory and shareholder approvals. The move, analysts said, comes ahead of expectations, and could be in the wake of simmering competition in the consumer lending space, especially with the launch of Jio Financial Services (Jio Fin). "While we still do not have finer details on the game-plan of Jio Financial, it has plans to initially foray into consumer and merchant lending.
What will be its impact on the banks's balance sheets? Since banks need to provide for 10 per cent of the loans restructured, they would need Rs 50,000 crores to Rs 80,000 crore for this purpose, notes Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
'We will test the waters, ferret out information through our business correspondents, and only then open a branch'
Enjoying the backing of the regulator, Gill has identified the core problems, ring-fenced the banks from "influencers" and is in the process of building a new team. Now, he needs to play a Vikram Pandit for YES Bank, says Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
Rishi Piparaiya lists three simple steps to manage the impact of rising prices and protect your financial future
Investors are increasingly turning optimistic about shares of new-age companies. From broad-based 'sell' calls, analysts are giving thumbs up to Zomato, Paytm, and FSN e-Commerce Ventures-owned Nykaa as these companies have shifted focus to sustainable profits. The shares of Zomato hit a fresh 52-week high of Rs 126 apiece on the BSE on November 7, having rallied 15.4 per cent in one week.
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